How to Draw Trend Lines Perfectly Every Time [2020 Update]

Summarizing some free trading idea resources I've been using

I've been following many free resources on youtube and twitter to generate trading ideas. Some of them are suspicious; some are more like boasting their wining trades but never post any losing trades. I see many people ask about trading ideas/resources, so I want to briefly share some resources I find useful.

Twitter resources:
  1. @ TicTocTick


  1. @ tradingwarz


  1. @ traderstewie


Youtube resources:
  1. Conquer trading and investing. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCN2WmKUchJpIcS1MupY-BuA


  1. Blaze Capital: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq0BCGckWWjrnV8YdYO24JA
Other notes:
  1. The scalping trades in the morning is not very suitable for small accounts since they will trade for example 100 shares of BA (~160) to scalp a few dollars per share.
  2. Even though the stocks on their weekly watchlist does well very, one still need to come up with an actionable plan. Very often say they recommend stock A on Sunday, and on Monday it already gaps up big. They sometimes do YOLO options -- big risk big rewards-- options can go to 0.
  3. Besides the free content, everyone can get a free one-week trial for their paid membership, or a 2-week free trial by winning a lottery game on their youtube ( what I did) or knowing someone in their group and get a referral. What I like about the group: (i) very frequently updates each day on SPY and stocks on the watchlist. (ii) all their positions, Profit / Loss are very transparent. I learned a lot about how to manage trades by observing their live trades. (iii) There are many very experienced traders in the group posting their trading ideas, plans, entry/exit, and there are many live discussions. (iv) There's a "helpdesk" in the group where members' questions will be answered in minutes. I often ask about my trading plan, entries/ targets.




Other resources:
  1. Shadow trader free newsletter
https://www.shadowtrader.net/newsletter-category/swing-trade


I've spent much time looking for free contents, and I like the ones above. Also looking forward to hearing about other good/bad resources. I might also update this post if there are enough interests. NFA
submitted by Busy-Valuable to Daytrading [link] [comments]

My advice over learned mistakes.

First and foremost, there are a lot of guru’s that have been there, done this etc. I have recently started my forex journey. Which I think is more relatable to other traders who are starting out, than listening to someone with 10x rolexes and a garage full of exotic cars.
My suggestion over what I have learned:
Do not take trades by looking at the charts off your phone. Take it AFTER your analysis and do this on TradingView, jump in on your phone.
Do not HOPE on your losers and keep EXPECTING for a reversal to your initial trade. If you were buying it’s probably time to sell, but you don’t know because you didn’t do your ANALYSIS.
PATIENCE. Trade breakouts, ranges wait for the price to hit your trendline whether it’s 1h4hr wait for confirmation on 15mins that it’s going back down, if the trend is bearish. Vice versa if it’s trending upwards.
LOT sizes. Keep them small and don’t up them when you take a loss, because you want to make your money back and then some. That’s a strategy to blow your account. I have blown 5 in a month so I’m speaking from experience.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE AND LIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY.
PATIENCE PATIENCE AND MORE PATIENCE.
Read some books, learn how to be emotionless when trading.
Stop staring at the charts all day, live your life.
submitted by MagicByTom to Forex [link] [comments]

GBPUSD forex trading help needed.

GBPUSD forex trading help needed.
Hello everyone,
I have seen a SELL in GBPUSD. If I am true I will lose my deposit. Because Please tell me if I am right or wrong after seen these screenshots. What is your suggestion? If I stay without doing anything and if the market keeps selling I will lose the deposit.
I have 9 open trades. Now it's -209 USD. and keep losing.
I am using Forex Kingle EA. And all those trades are from that EA.
and I see that whenever open new trades the TP line is getting close but the bounce back in the trendline is not high enough to touch the TP
If I open a SELL trade. I will reduce the drawdown, right?
Do you think it is a good idea?


Trading view GBPUSD H1
MT4 chart GBPUSD H1
submitted by nishadsaranga to Forex [link] [comments]

LTCUSD Areas of Interest

LTCUSD Areas of Interest
As it's Easter weekend the Forex markets have been pretty quiet today, with Commodities, Indies and Metals all shut. I've been focusing more on Crypto trading and potential opportunities.
Here is my analysis on LTCUSD (Litecoin):
You can see that price has broken out of a 4h TL that has held for some time since the last Crypto crash. Price has bounced off a strong level of resistance (and huge supply zone), and through a number of EMAs,, so I am seeing further downside on this pair. We could either see a re-test of the trendline, before falling further - or a drop to the grey boxes, before coming back up and potentially re-testing the TL.
It is worth keeping an eye on these levels (or setting alerts).
Should we see a clear break of both grey boxes, we could fall lower (towards the crash lows).
The level that stands out to me most is 35.00. A good area of support, and a demand zone that has held previously.
Let me know what you think below.
LTCUSD Before
Here is an update on LTCUSD.
I posted this analysis a couple of weeks back, and you can see that it almost played out to perfection. The TL was broken, price came back to re-test that area before dropping more than $5 in value.
Ideally, I wanted to look for buys in the marked demand area, but price didn't come down that far unfortunately.
LTCUSD After
submitted by PeteFX to CryptoCurrencies [link] [comments]

An Honest Review of T3 Newsbeat Live

T3 Newsbeat Live is run by Mark Melnick, a 20-year veteran trader from New York. According to him, he made his first million at the age of 19 during the dot-com boom back in the late 90s.
He claims that his trading room is the fastest growing trading room at T3 and also the Wall Street’s #1 trading room. You can see this in the description of his videos on Youtube.
He is a big proponent of reaching the highest win rate possible in trading. He openly shares some of his trading strategies in free videos and claims that some of his strategies are batting over 70% or even 80 %.
He also often says that some of the members enjoy a win rate over 90% using his strategies.
I will let you be the judge of this.
Self-Promotion
He makes a lot of videos to attract new people into his trading room. His daily videos are uploaded on Facebook and Youtube almost daily even on Weekends (mostly excluding Friday evening & Saturdays).
In so many videos you’d hear him talking about how his trading room has an edge over other trading rooms while bashing other trading rooms as a whole.
He often talks about how his trading room bought stocks/options at the near bottom or shorted at the near top using his “algorithmic analysis” which can be applied to all markets (stocks, future, forex, crypto).
Piques your curiosity, right?
In fact, that’s how I got to give his trading room a try.
“Who in the hell wouldn’t want to catch the top & bottom in the markets, right?”
So, you would think people in his room and himself are making a killing using his algorithmic analysis?
Not so fast… (in fact, his algorithmic analysis is just drawing trendlines and identifying the most probable support and resistance)
When it works (of course, nothing works 100% of the time), you are able to catch just few cents off the top and bottom when it works if you follow his trade.
However, you have no idea how long you’d have to hold your position. Mark doesn’t know either.
So, he usually goes for nickels and dimes and rarely holds a position longer than 5 minutes.
Even if he’s good at picking bottoms and tops, you’d often risk more than nickels and dimes just to make nickels and dimes. Make sense, right?
…….
…….
…….
Also, because he gets out of his positions fast, he misses out on riding some potentially big trades.
Oh, how I wish stay in that position a bit longer. He doesn’t say but one can surmise that he often leave too much on the table.
Of course, it’s important to take your profit fast when you scalp but you consistently leave too much on the table like he does, one has to wonder if he has any system for taking profits (otherwise, it’s all discretionary guessing).
This type of bottom/top picking is not his main strategy, though.
The strategy that makes him the most amount of money might surprise you. I will get to this later.
How Mark Trades (Mark’s Trading Setups and Strategies)
Mainly, he scans the market in the morning for earnings reports, analysts’ upgrades/downgrades and other catalysts that have potential to make moves in the market.
He openly shares his mockery or insult of analysts, calling certain analysts “idiots” or “imbeciles”.
He puts on his first trade(s) early in the morning (from 9:30AM to 10:00AM Eastern Standard Time) when the market move is the most volatile.
Some of his strategies use market order during this period of volatile time using options. You can see why this can be very risky and especially on thinly traded options with side spread.
He does point out this but sometimes you hear people in the room stuck in an options position that they can’t get out.
Just like his trades from calling the top/bottom of a stock, he gets in and gets out of a position within minutes if not seconds while going for nickels and dimes while staring at 1minute and 5-minutes charts.
That applies to most, if not all of his strategies. (Yes, sometimes he does catch bigger moves than nickels and dimes.)
When you trade during the most volatile time in the morning, you’re subjected to wild moves in both directions. If you’re overly prudent or inexperienced in trading, your stop (unless very wide), has a very high chance of hitting. A lot of times it might stop you out and go in the direction that you predicted.
So, when you’ve been trading during this time, you’d probably don’t set a stoploss order or a hard stop to avoid getting fleeced.
You do have to be proactive at cutting your loss as quickly as possible. Otherwise you’d find yourself scrambling to get out your position while the bid keeps dropping.
I have to say that Mark is very cautious and he does get out of trades very fast if he has doubt.
A lot of times he lets out exhausting, heavy sighs and even murmurs some swear words when things don’t seem to go the way he wants in a trade. Besides calling certain analysts, “imbeciles” and “idiots”, this is quite unprofessional but no one in the room has the gut to point things out like this.
The irony is that he is the “head of trading psychology” at T3 and it doesn’t seem like that he doesn’t have much control over his trading psychology and let alone his emotion.
People in trading chatrooms, like a herd of sheep, as a whole exhibit herd mentality. Even in an online chatroom, you don’t often see someone ruffling feathers and say what they really want to say.
This is probably because of the certain amount of people believing whatever he says without questioning the validity and quality of his comments.
He has several strategies and according to him all of them have win rate over %70.
However, he also comes up with new strategies as often as every month. He either comes up with new strategy or tweaks his existing strategies.
According to him, the reason is that the market is always evolving and you need to constantly adapt yourself to the ever-changing market environment.
What do you think? Does this sound like someone with an edge?
And for someone who scalps for nickels and dimes, he claims to have the highest Sharpe Ratio that he has ever seen in the industry. I’m NOT making this up. He often utters remarks like “My Sharpe Ratio is one of the highest I’ve seen in my twenty-year trading career.”, “I want to create a of traders with a very high Sharpe Ratio.
How can you achieve a high Sharpe Ratio when you scalp all the time?
And let’s not even talk about commissions generated from frequent scalping.
Who cares about commissions when you can be a scalper with high Sharpe Ratio?
Now, I want to talk about something controversial about his most profitable strategy.
Chatters
According to him, he makes the most amount of money using what he calls “Chatters”. He admits he bets on this kind of trades heavily.
His chatter trades are based on the “newsflow” of big funds making a move in certain stocks and piggybacking on the same trade before others catch on.
No one knows how he exactly gets his “newsflow” and he doesn’t give a straight answer when asked.
Maybe he pays a lot for this kind of information or maybe it’s given to him for free. Who knows?
But it makes sense. The name of the room is Newsbeat Live. Without this the name wouldn’t be the same.
This is probably the only real edge that he has and it’s understandable that he doesn’t want to reveal how he get this kind of newsflow and from where.
By joining his trading room he’ll make a callout on these trades for you to take advantage of.
In order to do this kind of trade, you have to be very quick on your trigger finger.
Almost always the initial move is done within a couple of minutes, if not seconds. If you get in late, you find yourself a sucker buying at or near the top.
Also, because you want to get in as soon as you hear his “chatter” announcements, he advised people to get in within 5 seconds of each chatter announcement and use market order to get in. He said that if he had a small account, he’d bet 100% on this kind of “high-octane” chatter trades and get in and get out fast for “easy” money.
This was how chatter trades were done
…Until one they when many people got burned badly.
Back in September or October of 2019, a lot of people in the room lost a lot money because they market ordered call options contracts on a chatter trade.
The spread on that trade was something like BID: 0.5 ASK: 5.00 few seconds after he announced it.
I didn’t take that trade. No way, I’m going to buy something that has a spread like that.
If you’ve been trading options you know that this kind of spread can happen. Many people that day in the room marketed-in on the trade, taking the offer at ASK.
They found themselves buying at $5.0 per contract when someone probably bought the same contract at $0.40 or $0.50 just few seconds ago.
Someone walked away with decent profits on that trade.
This was the biggest trading chatroom fiasco I’ve ever seen.
People in the room grieving and throwing numbers of how much they had just lost. 10K, 20K, 30K and even $60K.
Could it be also that someone who lost more and didn’t want to talk about it because it’d hurt too much? And how embarrassing to talk about such a loss. I give credit to people who spoke up about it.
People were obviously distressed and what did Mr. Mark Melnick do at this moment?
Initially, he didn’t say much. But what he said he was going to walk away from the trading desk to clear his mind.
It took a while for him to come back and he mentioned that it hurt him a lot that people lost a lot of money and encouraged people not to hesitate to contact him.
I don’t think he ever said anything about that he made a mistake insinuating to load up on chatter trades. No apology since everyone who took the trade did it at their own risk. He advised people to reach out to their broker and do whatever it takes to get their trades annulled because the market makers in that trades were despicable crooks and evil.
But let’s get one thing clear. Perhaps the cold hard truth.
Since Mark is the one who announces chatter trades. he basically frontruns everyone who gets in on these trades after him. There were times when he doesn’t take his own chatter trades and lets the room have it.
But when he does, it’s a guarantee win for him.
He has some sycophantic followers in his trading room and these people are always hungry for chatter plays. I can imagine drooling over the idea of next chatter trades.
It’s human to naturally seek the least path of resistance and this type of trade requires no skill but having fast trigger finger and a platform that allows fast execution.
By taking his chatter trades, you are most likely to make money as long as you act fast to get in and get out.
The thing is, you don’t know when it’s exactly the next chatter trade is going to happen.
If you take a bathroom break, you just miss it. If you take a phone call or answer a door bell, you just missed it.
So, it requires you to be glued to your monitor(s) if you want to make the most of your subscription.
So, we went over Mark’s most profitable strategy. But wait we haven’t yet to talk about his overnight swing trades.
Mark’s Swing Trades
His overnight swing trades jokes. Yes, jokes.
A lot of his overnight trades are done just before earnings announcements when implied volatility is at the highest.
You’ve ever bought a call option just before earnings, predicted the right direction but only to find out that you still lost money next morning? This is because of the implied volatility crush post earnings. A lot of people new to options don’t know this and get taken advantage by veterans this way.
I don’t know if Mark knows or not but I witnessed him buying options this way. I think he understand the concept of implied volatility but why he gets on such trades is a mystery.
I haven’t exactly checked the result of all of his swing trades but I wouldn’t be surprised if people lost more money following his swing trades than anything in the room.
Final Word
Mark offers “free-consultation” on the phone for people who struggle in their trading.
He said that he takes a lot of phone calls but often you’d get the feeling that he is distracted, unable to give an undivided attention for his consultation.
“How would you like to get on a free consultation with a millionaire scalper who can take your trading to the next level?” Appealing isn’t it?
But would you want to get on the phone with someone who is going to give a consultation, even if he or she is distracted?
Oh, it’s a free consultation. Ok, why not? What do I got to lose?
In his videos, you’d hear him saying that he cares for everyone in his trading room and considers them as part of his family. And he runs the trading room out of his good heart and intention more than making money.
Besides he says that he makes more money from his trading than running the room.
My suggestion is that you have a look and you’d be the judge.
He does hold “open house” for his trading room from time to time.
Also, I believe that if you try his trading room for the first time, you try it for a month for about $50. As for me, he’s just another front runner using his trading room to profit with a bad sense of humor and exaggeration that make you cringe.
submitted by appplejack007 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Teach me please :)

Teach me please :)
Hey everyone,
My name is Allen and I am new to Forex trading. I've messed around with trading stocks a year ago, but never got good enough to profitability yet. Now, I want to learn how to trade Forex and hoping I can become profitable through consistency and persistence.
I recently opened a live account and have made 7 trades: 2 wins, 4 losses. I have been trading small and have followed my stop losses so my losses have been small. I am down net -$35 currently. Here are a few of my trades. If anyone has feedback or sees a pattern in my trading that I can improve on, please let me know. I mainly execute trades off when market taps a resistance/support level or EMA line.
Things that I think I need to improve on: 1) Identifying correct market trend
- Ex) sometimes I have trouble figuring out if market is pulling back on a downtrend or starting to create a higher low and reversing

2) Identifying proper entry signals
- I am still working on interpreting price action. I usually enter trades on 15min chart or 1 hour chart. I may need to stop using 15min chart because I get faked out easily from it. One thing I've been implementing and it has helped my patience is waiting for candles to close before assuming market trend. Such as waiting for 15min candle or 1hour candle to close before entering a trade.


Here are some examples of my trades:
1) NZD/USD (Loss) Entry: short 0.65313 Exit: 0.65394
Reason for entry: I thought the market was going to respect the green trend line. Stop loss was right above the trend line. I saw a wick on 15 min chart and a red engulfing candle following it.


1 hour chart

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2) USD/CHF (Loss) Entry: short 1.00876 Exit: 1.00942
Reason for entry: In the 1 hour chart, it broke it's uptrend structure by creating a lower low. It rejected off the .50 level of Fibonacci Retracement, which signaled me that it is possibly going to continue downtrending. Both, 4hour and 1 hour charts were under the 34EMA (orange trend line).
15 min chart


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3) EUNZD (Win) Entry: short 1.71027 Exit: 1.70674 | 1.70884
Reasons for entry: - Market went under key level (orange horizontal line) - Market was under 34EMA (yellow trend line) - Broke through support (white horizontal line)
15 min chart
Where could I have gotten a better entry on this trade? I was negative for a long time until it finally broke the support. What will signal me if the market will be rejected off a resistance level or break through a resistance level?


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4) NZD/USD (Win) Entry: 0.65426 Exit: 0.65335 | 0.65215 | 0.65188
Reasons for entry:
- downward market trend - market rejected off 34EMA trendline (yellow trend line) - big red engulfing candle
https://preview.redd.it/7u6fidd78h131.png?width=1560&format=png&auto=webp&s=701cf325906e056ec5b71544c5bc4895a0117c02
Lessons I learned from this trade: - Be more patient on my take profit. Took first profits out too quickly because it was dropping so quick and I was scared it would bounce back up
- Find better entry
- Similar to the previous trade, I was in the negative for a while before it worked out. Where would be a proper signal for a short? Long wick followed by a red engulfing candle at resistance level?


Sorry for the long post! Hope you learned something from my mistakes and I would greatly appreciate any feedback you guys can give me! I believe forex trading can become the gateway to financial freedom for me and I want to do my best to make it work. I also live in Orange County, CA and wouldn't mind meeting anyone who is in the area to discuss strategies and learn from each other!
Hope everyone has a great night!
submitted by allenaxie to Forex [link] [comments]

Serious studying weekend progress. My notes and study plan so far.

Don’t try to bet that a chart will break resistance unless catalyst. Give it 5~10 minutes for it break resistance, if not, get out.
stock without clear resistance and support are harder to predic
Resistance can be diagonal in trendline. Chasing can work but very very very very risky, if you must, wait for a pull back to supportline.
Multi month resistance Breakout after multi day uptrend can be explosive.
When break out happens and fall right back through resistance, it’s bearish, must exit!
Down trend after a double top is a EXIT SIGN very BEARISH
Triple bottom with decreasing volume is BULLISH
When double top forms, GET OUT, BEARISH. Double top mentality is wanting to break even and people want to sell and short sell.
Triple top falls wayyyy faster than double top
Head and shoulder is even worse, it can’t even create double or triple top. GET OUT.
Try to avoid symmetrical triangle, it’s only 50 50.bullish or bearish.
¾ stocks follow the market, check SPY frequently. ALSO check Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 those are for pennystocks.
GOLD SILVER OILD FOREX USDEUR can be difficult, try to avoid.
S not a good sign.
Biotech are risky. They do p/d a lot. Financial stocks are slow and complicated. Same with commodity.
Deathcross - 50 sma below 200 sma. Go down down.

If anyone is looking for a real experience and lack the time or want some kind of practice. Make a TD ameritrade account and download think or swim. TOS is the real time chart i use and it has the function called the on-demand. Ondemand can be set on certain date in the past to see how the chart went on, on that day. It's great to see how things happened in the past to learn. ALSO I found it to be a great practice tool to practice "what if" situation.
Say, in the past AWSM in september had an amazing run and it takes you back to that time period. I then write down where I would have entered in for a day-trade and see how the chart plays out. This has helped me get a feel for how charts react hence it will help me to trade better in the future.
submitted by EdgyNut to RobinHoodPennyStocks [link] [comments]

Would any experienced traders (or inexperienced) share some insight please.

Good day to all you experienced and inexperienced traders alike.. Pardon me for this extremely long post, and i thank you in advance for spending the time to read this.
Basically.. I'm really passionate about Forex, not because of getting rich. But because i just love what Forex is and the ability to be well informed and stuff. For example.. it interests me how banks work, how monetary policy affects currencies and stuff.. I love the idea of being able to predict what is going to happen to a country/currency in the coming months and i love the thought of being informed about such stuff..
I come from a country where everyday is a 9-5 office job for majority of the country, in fact, Forex seems to be non-existent here (maybe its just me), its hard to find a mentor (because i know that it is important that one must learn live trading from a mentor to see his/her perspectives), but because only a minority (if it exists) does Forex.. its extremely hard to find a mentor.. Not only that.. There are 'courses' here that charge 4000USD for a single course which im pretty sure is just basic TA and FA that can be found on Youtube.
The only thing i can teach myself is stuff that can be found online.. Mostly TA, i have spent time and time over again to practice, buying at supports, selling at resistance. Candlesticks pattern etc and never going against a trend.. I started demo trading last October and i just started live trading on January this year. In my first week, i started with a live account of 200USD and with TA alone, i made 310 USD in a week. I felt unstoppable, i felt confident and that i know Forex in and out. I figured that i could trade my lifetime relying on TA alone. The 2nd and 3rd week were all profits without a single loss, earning and earning, i grew my account from 200 to 850 in a matter of 3 weeks. Then, it went downhill.
There was a week i cant remember, where i traded USD pairs and on that week, it was a really hectic week for USD as there were alot of news revolving it. (correct me if im wrong, which i think i am, it was the week where there was Trump's testimony or something like that, and then there was Theresa May's meeting with Trump and strengthening the pound) I took quite a hit of -120 dollars in total and because i didnt keep a journal then, i started to panic. Over the next few weeks, i tried to develop new TA analysis, usage of Bollinger Bands, MACD etc.. When i had profit, i was happy and thought 'this is the analysis that i will stick to', but when i had losing trades, i went on to tweak my methods.
I think it was the ending of Feburary where i was lying on my bed and thinking, why dont i just trade like how i did on the first few weeks, since it ended in many correct trades. So i began using my method of trading in week 1-3. During that week, i had a little bit more profit than i had over the last couple of losing weeks. (my account was at 400 balance at this point in time)
However, i was confused and sceptical to trade as i was really unsure.. Everytime i look at the charts, it was already either oversold or overbought on the RSI, and on the charts, a huge trend just took place and it was nearing either support or resis. I would trade against the trend when it was nearing resis/support and i got screwed really badly.
Today, i just blew my account trading EURJPY and EURUSD sell. I entered EURJPY at 129.626 and EURUSD at 1.22624. I kept holding even when my trades were going against me because i stubbornly refused to close, believing that my analysis was right. I kept holding as i thought 'its already overbought, surely it'll retrace soon' but it didnt. Its even worst because during the first few weeks where i was confident in my trades, i wanted to do my part to be a filial son, ( i come from an average family) and i told my mom and dad that i wanted to make money for them. They invested in me 1k USD which i am close to blowing it all, its sitting at 450USD now.. all due to my ignorance.
I was disappointed, frustrated that i blew my account. It is of course naive and stupid to think thoughts like ' i should have closed earlier when my losses could have been minimized' but what if it went to profit instead?? I was stupid and ignorant and i regret it. It was today that i realize that i have to pair fundamentals with technicals, but im just berating myself because i dont know where to start learning fundamentals, or actually, Forex as a whole.. I've been using indicators, such as RSI, automated trendlines and atuomated support/resistance.. I know that plain naked chart with self drawn S/R lines are best.. but i just dont know how to do it..
I do know that i shouldn't harp on the fact that i blew my account because everyone goes through it at least once, but i cant help it, the feeling sucks.
So that brings me to the question.. Would any experienced traders out there share where they learnt Fundamentals with TA?? It will be even better if a link or a book/course could be provided alongside it. I have always wanted to learn Fundamentals but because it is so broad, i don't know where to start. The only thing i know is that high impact news on the economic calender usually affects a currency long term, like FOMC/ interest rates etc.. I just dont know where and how to start learning it... Would appreciate if i could get a little help.. Be it in recommendations of books or links/courses.
Sorry guys for this extremely lengthy post, would really appreciate it if i can get any insight at all..
Thank you guys so much..
My results on a live account the first 2 weeks, in case anyone was curious: https://imgur.com/a/f2UGw https://imgur.com/a/o2b1Z
submitted by Risingvilla to Forex [link] [comments]

Six Days With iMarketsLive and what I think of what they have to offer- since I have not found anything more in my research than "they're an obvious scam- it's not worth your time" and no actual reviews of what they do.

First my expectations:
I've been looking at iML as a way to get a 'mentored start' with forex trading- As well as to get access to take a look at what kinds of trades some more experienced traders are making- in order to add that to my own fledgling market exposure. I had also hoped that if I could identify when one of their traders was making a very obvious good move I'd be able to mirror the trade, and make a bit of profit. I stepped in fully prepared to withstand all their bro-hype making it very clear that I would never involve myself in their bullshit pyramid recruiting. My two goals were to see if my education could be expedited, and to make enough to pay off the monthly fee.
Here's what I got: Immediately my "mentor" sent me a plan that I was to follow (without skipping ahead) listing my progression through their forex education program.
The first 30 days (which cost ~$220) was learning forex trading basics buy watching a series of 5-10 minute PPT presentation videos introducing you to forex trading for 1 hour each day. and it seems like good information, but as far as I can tell it doesn't seem like anything you couldn't learn for free. I fully expect babypips to have all the same information and probably presented in much clearer terms.)
The next 30 days (~$190) is tuning in to live or recorded videos to watch iML traders analyzing charts and trading, probably showing how they use stop losses, draw trendlines etc. At this point we are directed to consult our mentor to choose a non U.S. regulated broker that will let us use the leverages used in the strategies they employ, and then start a demo trading on metatrader.
The next 60 days (2 months x $190) is continuing to demo trade while subscribing ($15 monthly) to the swipetrades app (which seems to me like mirror trading (basically you look at trades other iML people [of your choice] have made and swipe left to reject, swipe right to copy all the trade info -entry points, stop losses etc- for pasting into MT4) and continuing to watch the iML TV traders. You are also supposed to subscribe to the super bro-powered harmonic analyzer at this point (another $15/month) which you hook up to your MT4 account and set up alerts or something, but apparently you have to leave it ruining on your PC at home all day? I'm seeing that a lot of new recruits keep complaining in the group chat that they can't get their computer to stay awake and ensure they get their mobile alerts. (Any chance having their "harmonic analyzer" running 24/7 while your away could be sketchy?)
After these 4 months of education and practice that cost you ($850-$910) you may fund your account and begin trading.
Observed cons: -Well... The whole thing is a con if you ask me. Can any of you tell me any one thing I've mentioned that you cannot access for free elsewhere? -You have to pay $190/month for the privilege of subscribing to a $60/month service. That's pretty well bullshit. -CONSTANT STREAMS OF BRO TALK, ENDLESS BRAINWASHING ABOUT HOW GREAT iML IS, AND THE iML "FAMILY." -generally no "negative" attitudes/messages are allowed in the iML Telegram chat rooms. This pretty much just means that they don't appreciate it much if you talk too much about any losing streaks you may be on, or (more probably) if you notice you're making consistent losses by following any particular iML trader. In my opinion the fact that this was mentioned at all is a huge strike against any potential transparency about how this all actually works out for the average recruit.
Pros: In actually digging the idea of a very active forex chatroom where people comment on their predictions for what's going to happen with which pairs, and how previous trades turned out for them where you get mobile notifications when traders post. If it was treated more professionally in a more mature crowd, without all the pretention of "family" (the truth is we're ALL competing here), and the bro talk, and with the disclaimer that you're responsible for your own risks, this could be a great learning tool. If there is something similar out there that I'm unaware of, if love to hear about it.
Anyhow that's my $0.02. Now I'm off to go cancel my account and get my refund. Cheers!
TL;DR: they're an obvious scam, not worth your time.
submitted by NOTtheSCMC to Forex [link] [comments]

An overview of upcoming events and ongoing projects.

I think it is time for some positivity and a nice overview of what's coming up.
Upcoming (confirmed):
Ongoing projects and news related to IOTA:
FUD:
As you see, there's so incredibly much going on. Don't focus too much on all mentioned 'deadlines', these are just indications given by the team. Look at the big picture of where IOTA's heading to, the backbone of IoT, with a focus on M2M payments. I think current price ($1.3 at the moment of writing) is a real steal.
Finally I would like to leave this IOTA TA here. I know it's often bullshit, and the price is related to many factors, but it's certainly possible: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IOTUSD/FKqT7oYA-IOTA-idea-based-on-trendlines/. Don't say you have not been warned when IOTA's selling above $5 again within a few months.
submitted by nstratz to IOTAmarkets [link] [comments]

get free forex trading signals by Simple ABC Correction

get free forex trading signals by Simple ABC Correction
What should you look for when searching for measured moves? Here’s a list • Measured moves act as reversals of the prevailing price trend. For MMUs, look for a downtrend before the chart pattern begins. For measured move down , look for an uptrend preceding the pattern.
• The first leg should be a straight-line run with little curve to it.
• The corrective phase should be proportional to the first leg. Prices usually retrace 40% to 60% of the first leg move. Be suspect of larger retraces. Pair large first legs with large retraces; small first legs with small retraces. Avoid patterns that look like horizontal saw teeth—the retrace has gone too far.
• The second leg should approximate the slope of the first leg, but allow variation.
• Volume trends downward throughout the pattern.
Simple ABC Correction Trading Tips and free forex signals
Draw a trendline from A to C and extend it downward. When price closes above the trendline, buy.
• For more aggressive traders, draw a trendline down from C and buy when price closes above it (see the dashed line in the figure). Also, a close above the intraday high at valley B works.
• For more conservative investors, a close above C or even A is the buy signal.
• Buy only if the market and industry are both trending upward, so the stock can make the most of upward momentum.
• Be prepared for price to reverse at A—36% do, and prices drop, confirming a double top.
The larger the corrective phase retrace, the better the chance of meeting the price target
www.freeforex-signals.com
free forex signals presents forex trading signals via SMS , Email and WhatsApp for Free

submitted by frees2020 to u/frees2020 [link] [comments]

A Forensic Approach to Trading: Examining the FOMC release.

It's a truism in trading that your strategies are worthless unless they pass the test of the market. They either make money in the long run, or they don't. We have a hard, factual standard we can hold matters to.
When it comes to theories about what is happening in the market, it's much harder to apply similar standards because many things don't appear on the charts. However, this often means we fail to even try.
This is bad practice. We should be willing to challenge our own, and other's theories about the market, as well as investigate out-of-the-box theories, by comparing them to available chart evidence.
Edit: squitstoomuch has drawn my attention to the fact that my analysis and understanding of the situation has some serious, if not fatal flaws. Rather than delete the post, I'll leave it up because looking at other people's mistakes is often useful, and it's still a good idea to compare your ideas to the charts and see if the market validates them. Grossly incorrect stuff has strike throughs, the rest still stands.
For example, a very common analysis you will hear after the combination of rate decision and Governor press conference is that the overall direction of movement can be accounted for by what was said in the conference.
This is something you can assess by looking at the charts.
Proposition 1: The USD fell largely due to Yellen's comments implying future rate trajectories
Consider:
M1 EURUSD http://i.imgur.com/MS7ceQf.png
M1 USDJPY http://i.imgur.com/JeHI8qw.png
You can see that the majority of the price movement against the USD happens within the first ten minutes after the rate release, and within that, the majority of the move happened within the first minute.
Logic dictates that NONE of this movement was related to the content of the speech, simply because the speech had not been given yet.
You can also see that although there was movement throughout the speech, it managed to only depress the USD an additional third compared to the rate release.
How you choose to interpret this is up to you, but at least you can now frame the 'it was Yellen's speech that did it' theories in the context of some irrefutable evidence.
My personal interpretation is that whilst the speech content strongly influences price, and did further depress the USD, it was not the original motivator for the drop. Nor was it the main determinant of the magnitude of the drop in the value of the USD, because both of those happened before she ever opened her mouth. ~~
Let's look at some more propositions.
Proposition 2: You should trade what happened last time
USDJPY H1 chart from 14th December 2016, the previous time rates were raised. FOMC raises Fed Fund Rate, USD goes:
http://i.imgur.com/qL7upT7.png
... up. So if you had simply looked at what happened last time, and then bought this time, you would have lost money. I'm going to strongly recommend that nobody short the USD for the next rate hike just because it went down this time!
Proposition 3: You could have just predicted the movement on technicals.
Well...
http://i.imgur.com/zYOlVmw.png
... as it turns out, one of the most basic, elementary technical strategies (trendline + horizontal resistance) would have gotten you in nicely this time, at least on USDJPY. The EURUSD set-up was a bit more advanced, but still straightforward in the context of the essentially guaranteed rate decision.
http://i.imgur.com/L8B7s1K.png
Interestingly, pivot points perfectly predicted the extent of the day's price movement this time round.
USDJPY (D)
http://i.imgur.com/emY42Nn.png
EURUSD (H1)
http://i.imgur.com/fD8UDss.png
(Note the different timeframes. This may just be a case of coincidence, but I will say that ever since I put them on my charts, they've been very useful for exactly this sort of thing: how far the market will go before a pause or a retrace).
Proposition 4: the market is irrational and unpredictable
I don't have any strong evidence to disprove this, but I will say that the NFP price action was a big red flag that something like this was going to happen on FOMC day, and that there are clear, strongly repeatable analytical approaches that predicted an outcome like this. Many people were not the least bit surprised.
.
Finally, I'd like to suggest that this is much more than just "pricing in". I don't have the time nor patience to go through my archives and dig out every "priced in" economic release that I've ever tried to trade, so I'll leave the evidence hunt for those more curious.
But in my experience, when the market has priced an event in, and that event happens, the usual result is ... nothing. This is what 'pricing in' means, that price is already correct in regards to that information.
If anything actually happens, it's usually counter-intuitive, and that means that the big banks are using the event to hustle price about.
As a footnote, that's not the only way they hustle price. One thing they also like to use talking heads to influence market sentiment: http://news.forexlive.com/!/goldman-sachs-see-a-second-fed-hike-in-june-20170310 (This bulletin is saying there will be faster rate hikes, ie investors should buy USD. You might wonder why Goldman would risk their reputation by putting their name behind directions they're not trading, and the easy answer is that nobody remembers these bulletins, but everyone remembers the end of year profits of the bank. Bank mouthpieces aren't there to help the clients, they're there to help the bank)
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

IAmA profitable discretionary Forex trader..

/trading and /forex are dead so I thought I would post in here. Feel free to ask me anything. I am not a guru, and am just looking to help aspiring traders by cutting through the many misconceptions that exist around trading.
I have spent a LOT of time learning how to trade consistently and profitably. I have also spent a LOT of time learning how to do things that do not work. What works for me may differ with what works for you, I can only comment based on my own experience of what works.
I have tried using hundreds of different indicators and combinations thereof, I have also done extensive backtesting and data mining and can advise somewhat on my experience with that. I have tried trading with EAs.
However, these are things that do not work for me.
I consistently and profitably trade using horizontal support and resistance and a fibonacci scale. This method is sometimes referred to as "Price Action" or "Naked" trading in online forums. I also use angular support and resistance (trendlines), but less often. The market is very simple if you let it be.
I trade patterns that constantly repeat themselves in the market. They repeat consistently, I see them again and again and again. I do not know the outcome of each trade before I take it. I cannot tell the future, and I do not believe anyone who says that they can. Because I cannot tell the future, I cannot eliminate losing trades entirely, and they form part of my profitable trading.
I owe much of my initial trading belief to a group of traders that I met online. I have since met these people in person to confirm their situations. Their advice has always been free and I am deeply thankful for their mentoring, these traders helped me to believe that consistently profitable trading was possible. These traders trade different markets using different methods, but each is able to be consistenly profitable and trade for a living. I believe that having profitable traders to talk to day-in-day-out greatly helps the learning process.
Having said that, I do not currently trade for a living and I do maintain a fulltime job. This will change in years to come as I get a better idea of what to expect from the market week to week, month to month. Trading Forex is not a consistent income in the same way that a wage is - profits fluctuate, as the market is dynamic - and there are practicalities that need to be considered before I leave the workforce and commit to trading fulltime.
I am currently learning to trade the DAX by paper trading. I aim to take smaller profts on a daily basis from the DAX to supplement my Forex trading. This more consistent income will assist me in being able to leave the workforce.
A large amount of capital is NOT necessarily required to trade for a living..
Anything that I can help with? Ask away
submitted by grebfar to investing [link] [comments]

free forex Trading signals and High Tight Flag Trading Tips

free forex Trading signals and Trading Tips
Prices should climb at least 90% in two months or less.
After the rise, find a place where prices pause—a congestion or consolidation area.
the rules for buying after High, Tight Flag
Wait for price to close above the upper trendline or above the pattern high if the pattern has no top trendline
Buy the stock. Place a stop below the prior valley, below the pattern itself, or use a volatility stop. With this pattern, the most important rule is to wait for an upward breakout.
In a test of 78 High, Tight Flag , I found 13 patterns that broke out downward. That might not sound like much until a failure happens to you. Save your bucks and wait for the upward breakout. The hardest thing to do when trading High, Tight Flag is to buy the stock. Chances are the forex is near the yearly high after doubling in price. How much higher can it possibly go? Buy in and find out! Remember, High, Tight Flag have the lowest failure rate and highest average gain of any chart pattern. Your selection may prove the exception and fail, so place a stop loss
order below the valley nearest the breakout. This may be below the High, Tight Flag itself. Check to make sure the stop is not too close. You don’t want volatility to stop you out. Later in the book, I review two High, Tight Flag trades, one where I stole two grand from someone and another in which they stole it back . . . with interest.
When identifying or forex trading signals High, Tight Flag , what should you look for or avoid? Here is a list:
Avoid overhead resistance that may cause a throwback. High, Tight Flag with throwbacks rise just 49%, but the rise averages 100% for patterns without throwbacks.
www.freeforex-signals.com
free forex signals presents forex trading signals via SMS , Email and WhatsApp for Free

submitted by frees2020 to u/frees2020 [link] [comments]

Requesting Assistance for a trade I want to make.

https://i.snag.gy/jv4xku.jpg
Coffee, it's not forex but my broker appears to provide it. My choice is to go long. I'm asking for help regarding:
-timing I have no set rules I will just enter when the price approaches the trendline,
-market spread risks when the market closes daily and too the gap risks,
-whether to enter long now incase it doesn't come down and touch the trendline, should I scale in?,
-are there any real risks for whipsaw,perhaps US elections results may disrupt this pattern.
-what distances would be considered safe to place a stoploss.
ty
submitted by Trivial-Savoir-Faire to Forex [link] [comments]

Wykoff/VSA theorists, what's your take on the current short term market manipulation with the USDJPY?

Chart for reference:
http://i.imgur.com/qL413v3.png
This week has been particularly good for market maker manipulation, with two ultimately inconsequential, but high profile speeches from Yellen and Draghi. For new players who are not familiar with this tactic, market makers will often use these speeches to drive price in a certain direction at least expense to themselves, and low volume mark-ups are typically indicative that the next "trend" play is in the other direction.
This week, they used the Yellen speech to drive the USDJPY up on very little volume, thanks to the highly fortunate coincidence of thin liquidity and the speech itself. Could it be they're actually priming for a "pump and dump" (where market makers inflate the price so they can sell at a profit, and then in forex, short at much better level) and continue the down trend of the USDJPY?
The obvious target for a "pump and dump" is the very well respected down trendline that has been used to contain any up move in the USDJPY. You can see how past contacts with the downtrend line result in forceful down moves with strong engulfs.
So what happened with the downtrend line contact just recently? Well, for those not watching, the USDJPY was pushed up over the down trendline on the back Draghi's speech. Whilst USDJPY movements on ECB policy aren't necessarily abnormal, it's still noteworthy to see a significant trendline and level (the daily pivot point) attacked on a Draghi speech in the current risk climate.
What's even more noteworthy is that they chose not to maintain price above that level, instead letting it sink back down, and thus creating the impression the trendline is holding.
This leads to two possible interpretations, but I'm undecided as to which is true.
1) There will be false break of the trendline and then an aggressive mark-down, likely timed to Trump's speech. Market makers want a deeper retrace of the USDJPY, and recent manipulation was oriented at generating a consensus amongst major participants.
2) The low volume associated with the Yellen speech mark-up is simply coincidental, and it represents pre-positioning to commence marking the USDJPY up, breaking the trendline and resuming the uptrend.
Either way, I'm anticipating the mark-up/mark-down will occur on the back of the inauguration speech.
What's your Wykoff/VSA interpretation?
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

Predictions are becoming easier... (post for the newbies)

So as you might see from my history of post I have been struggling with the forex. Whether that be executing a trade, following my strategy to a T, or just making the right market predictions. Well today was the day I was able to show myself I can make the right predictions, execute the trade, and be able to explain to myself and other why I took it. Here is it how it went:
  1. Saw trendline for USD/JPY about to touch again and seemed extremely unlikely to break
  2. RSI was still high so all predicted it to crash down.
  3. at about 15-5 mins before the FOMC took place saw a pin bar
  4. Executed a sell on the pair and took profits about 40 pips down (could have held but I take what I can no sense in being greedy)
So for all you new peeps out their starting to research the forex and thinking you can easily get rich quick if you just learn it. I have been studying the Forex since September and it is now April... I just predicted and was able to tell what the market was going to do, how the IT could fake it out ( which I was also able to predict :)) and being confident enough to stay in it, and then only earning 40 pips for 6 months of work. So what should this experience should tell you: The market is kinda of like a sport (Football reference). You start out at age 5 and play flag football. Then you go from that to pads. Next comes working out everyday and practicing your skills just to start for the Varsity Team. If you are good and lucky enough you will be put on a College Team and be trained all year long and to the point where you might die. Lastly if you are one of the lucky few who makes it to the NFL and get paid the big bucks you will be working non-stop. You are always studying, practicing, reviewing your mistakes (thank the lord I am done with film on Saturday), making corrections and constantly adapting and learning to your environment.
This is not something easily learned. Hell I am an idiot compared to the guys who have been doing this for only 2 years. But as long as you stick with it and dedicate your time and energy you will learn it. It is not impossible I know it may feel like it is impossible to be able to predict this thing that anyone in the world can change but it simply is predictable. Have fun with the experience of learning the market. It is like a ride on a rollercoaster but only you determine when you are off of the ride.
P.S. if any of you want to see how I set up the trade check out my trader view account same username: brewthedrew19
submitted by brewthedrew19 to Forex [link] [comments]

Any clarification or experience using Hilbert Transformation into your guy's algorithms?

So I've been wanting to explore a bit more about cyclical indicators, particularly breaking down forex price action into sinusoidal curves. I'm looking into Hilbert Transformation and found it fairly convincing and maybe something I could explore in my TA.
What I noticed in the ta-lib library is that there are indicators for Hilbert transformations. But I'm unfamiliar with the differences between all of them (Instantaneous Trendline, Phasor Components, Dominant Cycle Period). Is there any documentation anyone is familiar of that breaks down these different ones, or does anyone have experience utilizing these indicators? Thanks very much in advance.
submitted by Far_East_Beast to algotrading [link] [comments]

How do you know when to exit a trade ?

I fell like this is one of the most undocumented topics in Forex. At least I fail to find anything on this.
To give you some background. I'm a technical trader. I usually use price action with support/resistance, trendlines, etc. I've read lots about money management and I'm okay with the way I put my S/Ls and T/Ps. What I'm struggling with is adjusting to the market after you placed a trade.
Usually after I enter the trade I get one of the three outcomes.
 1)Because of my TP I get only 20 pips out of 100 pip move which is very frustrating. 
( 20, 100 are just an example)
 2) I see the price turning around with opposite price action signals ( maybe on lower 
timeframes. should I be looking on lower timeframes ? ) but I keep clinging onto my trade because I think it'll turn around again and I end up closing it only after I go into negative pips.
 3) I do react to the market signals. I exit a trade to find out that that was only a 
temporary correction.
In every educational video or book the author always magically is able to get the most pips out of the trade after he entered it. But in reality that's impossible. So my question is how do you guys adjust to the market environment to get the most out of your trade ?
Hope this makes sense :) Sorry for formatting. I'm new to reddit, and corrected it as much as i could.
submitted by pipcrawler to Forex [link] [comments]

In Search of the Best Yen Pair

This will be a wall of text, but with pictures! I'm going to attempt to analyse USD/JPY, EUJPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and ZAJPY. I'm really interested in your feedback, especially from the guys who are good with the supply/demand levels :)
A thought occurred to me while I was regretting eating McDonalds for dinner last night. When there are strong directional moves by one pair, associated pairs and crosses will move in the same way - especially if that move is the result of only one of those currencies strengthening or weakening. Often however, its the associated pairs that will offer a cleaner technical setup.
The purpose of this post is to identify a Yen pair that has the greatest upside potential in the event of the Yen weakening again. It might take a long time to get back up to the highs, so I want a currency with a really good outlook. If you think there is a strong case for a continued move to the downside, I really want to hear it as well.
Likewise on the last big leg up in USD/JPY, when we cracked 100 and then some, I actually lost out a little bit by spreading my trades across EUJPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY - the rationale being that if the Yen weakened rapidly, the risk trades would do the best against them rather than the dollar (which normally has quite muted moves whenever the Yen weakens rapidly). Except in that case it was the dollar strengthening, and the Yen fought back against the Euro and Pound.
So I got thinking: one of these pairs must have the cleanest technicals, the simplest fundamentals, and offer the best risk:reward potential for a trade to the upside - especially since it's the BoJ in 2 days.
I'm going to go through the suspects one by one, and just do some basic technical and fundamental analysis. I will only be using trendlines, fibonacci levels and the 50 & 100D SMAs.
For the purpose of simplicity I have ignored price data pre mid-2012, as most of those levels are gone now. Except the one we're at now - in almost all pairs the current level has been a significant pivot, dating back a few years.
Starting with /forex's most hated pair:
USD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/W8DRrkU.png
Technicals 100 is once again a significant obstacle, and I expect sideways action between here and 96, if the selloff doesn't continue. The Yen might weaken again very sharply, but so also might the dollar. We have a fairly clear and convincing trendline break, and I'm regretting getting in long. We might have a low in place, but we also might not. We are currently supported at a critical level by the 100DMA and the 0.23 fib, as well as a known demand level. A break lower here targets 95 and then 93.50.
Fundamentals We will need a dollar rally as well as a Yen rout to climb quickly, and I'm unwilling to play only one and not the other. Without signs that the US will slow easing and Japan will at least keep it up, we do not have the fundamental driver to push very much higher.
Trades I'm not sure the best trade is to be found here, in either direction. Long seems to be the way forward, but we need some convincing. Otherwise it's sell rallies into 100.
EUJPY
http://i.imgur.com/ETkvc23.png
Technicals If we're looking for the best technical setup for a long, we might have it here. We've spiked through this pair's most significant demand level, bounced off the 100DMA, and closed above the trend line. It's a fairly simple picture.
Fundamentals I am slightly concerned by the Euro's lacklustre performance against everything besides the dollar. EUGBP is down, EUAUD didn't add 200 pips in the last session, etc. That said, I think that the Eurozone is going to start impressing people soon, as long as they can avoid another sovereign debt crisis. Which they won't. It will happen and when it does it will suck this pair down the suck hole faster than USD/JPY ever could.
Trades The problem here is that the bottom of Friday's hammer is 280 fucking pips away. I don't know about you guys but I don't like setting stops 280 pips away, especially with limited upside potential right now. I would look for a higher low to form first before getting in long - maybe around 128.50.
A new Eurozone crisis, continued Yen strength and a break of Friday's low could send this pair screeching to a spike low of 115 in a matter of minutes, in my opinion.
GBP/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/gv5WVy5.png
Technicals Another good long tech setup. A Head and Shoulders pattern was broken and completed on Thursday, with a close above the trend line.
Fundamentals The UK economy is looking better than it has all year, and its recovery is looking set to overtake the Eurozone's. However, Mark Carney comes in next month and we might be staring down the barrel of more dovish MP. This could destroy Cable's fragile recovery, which is showing signs of weakness at a previous pivot level and significant fib.
Trades Going long here seems like the obvious choice. A stop would need to be quite wide, but below Thursday's low would probably be sufficient, as we could probably see Friday's low as a bizarre volatility spike that had very little to do with the Pound or the Yen. Mind you that is still 160 pips away, so either wait for a dip or keep your position size very small.
AUD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/EDZigYP.png
Technicals This is not a chart that screams, "go long", and it makes me worry about the other Yen pairs' upside potential. It could well be that the next significant move lower starts here, as the Aussie continues its collapse. Currently holding at the 50% fib and 200DMA, but any trendlines are long gone and we can expect price consolidation as long as we do not go lower.
Fundamentals China released a lot of bad data this weekend, some neutral data, and no good data. The Aussie and Kiwi underperformed against the USD this week, despite being given a massive head start. There is huge scope for further easing, and this currency is strictly in "sell rallies" mode. A gold and commodities recovery is the only thing that will save the Australian dollar.
Trades I don't like it either way. As has been said on this sub before: what a c*nt of a pair.
NZD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/5pEnfhq.png
Technicals An even uglier picture than AUD/JPY, but we have spiked off the 0.38 fib and closed above the 200DMA, if that means anything. A break of Friday's low could get extremely bad very quickly, but this pair isn't known to really motor.
Fundamentals The Kiwi actually performed worse than the Aussie this week, closing at the lows and through significant support, while the Aussie staged a late rally. It's hard to be bullish either of these currencies. This is purely due to the commodities slump. Despite tightening MP, the Kiwi looks particularly vulnerable as the entire bloc collapses.
Trades I'm not sure the best trade is here, but if Yen strength continues then selling a rally into 77.50 looks like a good play.
CAD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/AdcnwkO.png
Technicals 97.50 is the bull/bear line here and we're well through it, so we would need a close above here to be really bullish. Price bounced off the 0.23 fib and 100DMA, and 97.50 once again offers the most serious upside resistance. A break lower here targets 91.50
Fundamentals The Canadian dollar staged a late rally on Friday on the back of ridiculously good employment data. USD/CAD is now at descending channel support and the 50% fib of the recent rally, so I would be careful either way. Otherwise I don't know much about the Canadian fundamental picture, but I believe they're happy to see Carney go.
Trades Not really sure what to do here. If anyone is more familiar with this pair, let's hear it. Otherwise I'm gonna stay out of this one.
CHF/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/4vvoI2o.png
Technicals CHF/JPY was actually the biggest gainer in % terms when Japan first announced its QE program. Since then it hasn't done much. Trendline is gone but we've bounced off the 100DMA, which has provided support before. We need above 105 to get really bullish here. There is a very long broken wedge which technically targets 93.
Fundamentals I expect the Swiss Franc to weaken if the stock market recovers from here. If it doesn't, and we see a continued decline in stocks, the Yen will strengthen more than the Franc, so we'll probably head down some more. Overall it doesn't look good for this pair. If USD/JPY recovers sharply, USD/CHF probably will as well, so gains here will be muted. If on the other hand gains are driven by fundamental Yen weakening in response to more QE, would could see a large move to the upside.
Trades Buy on a break and hold of 105 only.
ZAJPY
http://i.imgur.com/SYiZZpd.png
I just put this up for the lolz. Something has gone horribly wrong for South Africa, so if you think the Aussie's had it bad...
Technicals A break of the 50% fib gives us real cause for concern here. If the Rand continues to weaken as a result of gold weakening, we could see the rally fully retraced. Expect consolidation.
Fundamentals The Rand performed worst of all the commodity currencies, as gold continues to slide (it recently broke out of its consolidation to the upside, only to crash on Friday to confirm a break lower again, targeting $1350). When USD/JPY collapsed on Thursday, USD/ZAR barely blinked. I've been trading it to the upside on dips, but 10.00 seems to be capping moves for now. If gold does not recover sharply, the South African economy is going to suffer very badly.
Trades F that noise. Buy USD/ZAR on a break of 10.25, or sell it on a break out of consolidation.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

James Stanley's "Fingertrap" Scalping Strategy (also good for longer term trading)

I posted this elsewhere a while back, but I thought I'd put it in /forex and not on the blog, because it's my absolute favourite tool in all of Forexland.
James Stanley is a (very good) trader and educator at DailyFX (Twitter: @JStanleyFX). He's also very friendly and helpful on Twitter if you have serious questions.
Here's the link to the original article but what I'm going to do is explain it in a little more detail, show you how James uses it, and then explain how I use it for finding entries on longer term trades and breakouts.
There's also this helpful video you can watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrxOiAhIlaQ
Right, so before I explain what it is, here's a checklist for WHEN the Fingertrap strategy is effective:
If the answer to all those questions is yes, you're ready to go:
1: switch to an hourly or 2hr chart, so you can see what movement on the day is like. You should be able to spot a strong directional bias if there is one, and you may have already done analysis to find important support and resistance.
2: Add two indicators: an 8 period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and a 34 period EMA. I don't know why those numbers, and different combinations might work better on different pairs (EUJPY tends to throw a lot of false signals with this, as does gold, so it's worth experimenting). We use EMAs and not SMAs because they respond more quickly. Here I'm looking at EUJPY on 2hr chart, on 26 April 2013):
http://i.imgur.com/9wqd36U.png
3: Is price clearly above or below BOTH moving averages (eg. it's a downtrend and price is below both, or an uptrend and it's above) AND has the 8 EMA crossed over the 34 EMA (crossed to the downside if you're looking at a downtrend). These two factors are a strong confirmation of a trend, if you need one.
4: Once you have confirmed that a trend is in place, switch to your preferred scalping timeframe. I usually use 5m or 1m charts. You'll now see that the 8EMA (which is the only one we're looking at from now on) hugs the price quite closely.
5: If we're in a downtrend, what we are looking for is for price to ideally break through some kind of support, and then to rebound to the 8EMA. It can push through it, even close a whole candle above it, but should eventually move back down below it.
This is your signal to enter short. As you can see from the chart below (same time, 5m chart), it's essential that you determine that there is a trend first and not just some jumping around.
http://i.imgur.com/pvjgeKg.png
6: The idea is to use relatively small trade sizes, and scale in and out of the trade rapidly. When price extends quite a bit away from the 8EMA, that's the time to take partial profits, wait for a rebound to the 8EMA, and then enter again.
7: The game ends when the 8EMA crosses the 34EMA again, and price is on the other side of both of them
The idea is that, even with strong moves, there are quick pullbacks. This strategy helps to give you an edge in determining where those pullbacks are likely to stop. It's not perfect, but no strategy is. The point is that it gives you a higher probability of entering at a good time (buying relatively low, or selling relatively high), and it also means you can have a lower risk entry (being closer to the last swing high).
Now, I don't get to do a lot of scalping because I have a day job, but I do use this for breakouts, and just any regular old entry as a matter of habit (unless I'm doing a fairly long term trade and 10 pips either way doesn't matter that much to me).
What I will do is wait for a breakout or a strong move in the direction I want. Then I put my Fingertrap template on, and wait for price to "reload" to the moving average before getting in, placing my stop above a nearby swing high. My stop will always be placed while thinking about how long I plan to hold the trade. If I'm looking for a move in GBP/USD from 1.56 down to 1.50, I'm not going to place my stop above the nearby swing high on the 5m chart - I'm going to place it around 1.5650. So you have to use your discretion obviously.
For example, I will be watching EUUSD very closely for a break of 1.3000 or 1.2950, and then employ it from there.
For scalping, the nearby swing high is definitely a good place to put it - if the trade goes that badly away from you, you definitely want to be out.
Give it a try, and let me know if you find it to be helpful! Let me know if you have any questions.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook, (after a massively successful trendline bounce)

Last week I posted a potential trendline bounce setup on USD/CHF. You could say it worked out rather well.
It took a couple of days to hit my target of 0.94, but I'm actually still in this trade, sort of. I've taken most off my position, and then added again when we returned to 0.952 briefly. Having said that, I was probably caught up in the heat of the moment, and 0.95 would have been a better re-entry point.
There's also a case for the bears here, so let's look at the set ups for USD/CHF.
8Hr Chart:
http://i.imgur.com/bZCNoTM.png
That last 8Hr candle is a bull's worst nightmare, so why am I still in this trade? The break of the wedge is encouraging, sure, but the larger wedge top has halted advances for now. We could easily see 0.9500 or even 0.9420/00 early in the week if the dollar rally loses steam. But here's why it might not. That means it's time to...
Talk About Fundamentals!
Why did the US Dollar rally so much? There are a lot of ideas floating around. It wasn't broad-based risk aversion, although it looked like it if you were watching the Aussie and the Pound. What most likely caused it was the search for yield, as investors lost confidence in Japanese government bonds, and the US economy started to look even healthier. Good jobs numbers mean a chance of tapering QE sooner than expected, which is one of the only things propping up the riskier assets.
Stocks didn't follow through, which leaves me suspicious. The Yen crosses were actually up (although in a much more muted fashion than USD/JPY). But the most telling sign comes from EUUSD.
I'm gonna get a little ahead of myself here and take a page from Jamie Saettele's book (DailyFX). EUUSD and USD/CHF have always been highly negatively correlated. That correlation breaks down sometimes, but it's usually there. When we have highly correlated assets, we can look to the correlated asset for confirmation of a big move in the first asset. A good example is gold and silver. If gold makes a new high but silver does not confirm that new high with its own, then chances are the next move in gold is down.
So if we get a night high in USD/CHF, we're looking for a new low in EUUSD. And we got it.
Price went briefly down to 1.2950. Here's the 8hr chart of EUUSD showing USD/CHF in white:
http://i.imgur.com/Xmcn3Bq.png
So the next move for both of these, in the medium term, is probably a continuation of Friday's moves. However, as you can see EUUSD looks to be bouncing off its trendline, and USD/CHF failed to break close above the larger wedge top. This leaves some doubt as to this week's likely moves.
USD/CHF Trade Set Ups
There's a case for both bulls and bears. If you believe that this dollar move was impulsive and likely to retrace, there are sell signals aplenty. Trade would be simple:
Sell at market, with a stop above 0.963, targeting 0.945 initially (former wedge top which could act as interim support) and then 0.9300 (ascending wedge bottom).
However, I believe that what is happening is something of a paradigm shift, as investors finally start to click that their best chance of reliable yield is in US Treasuries. I would like to see the move confirmed by a EUUSD trendline break, and a similar move from the S&P500. If we do get that, expect the larger wedge to break, and for this pair to enjoy a lot more upside.
I am currently long from 0.9271. I took a third off at 0.94, another third off at 0.9550, my final target is open, and I am so fucking smug right now. I added at 0.9520, and will add a final third (bringing me back to the original position size) if we see the 0.9500/0.9460 area again. I intend to hold this trade until I am stopped out, either by a full retracement, or because my trailing stop was hit. I will trail the stop manually whenever new lows are formed.
This means I will be trailed out by the creation of a lower low - an indication that party time is over.
Happy trading!
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

What is a Trendline - YouTube Mastering Trend Lines for Beginners (Forex Strategy) - YouTube Trendlines in Forex (Premium) - YouTube HOW TO USE TRENDLINES IN FOREX

Trendlines are a staple for technical Forex traders that can be used on any currency pair and on any time frame. Follow these 3 easy steps to drawing trend lines which is a powerful tool to time en... The purpose of drawing a trendline is to ascertain whether the current will continue in the same direction or if the trend can change. Most traders make the mistake that a broken trend line means a change of trend. This is partially true. But, the important point to note here is that a broken trend line could simply mean a deeper retracement or a pullback to the trend, or it could indeed ... Unfortunately, most forex traders don’t draw them correctly or try to make the line fit the market instead of the other way around. In their most basic form, an uptrend line is drawn along the bottom of easily identifiable support areas (valleys).. This is known as an ascending trend line.. In a downtrend, the trend line is drawn along the top of easily identifiable resistance areas (peaks). The Trendline Trading Strategy is a forex price action trading system that is designed to trade the price bounce off the trendlines.. You will notice on your charts that price does two things when it comes to a trendline: it bounces off it which means it obeys the trendline or Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please do not trade with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to lose. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We will not accept liability for any loss or damage ... Step Two: Identify a Breakout point Trendline Trading System. In order to find a breakout point of the trend that was identified in step one, the strategy will use a combination of the three indicators (MACD, 15 minute SMA, EMA) to identify a break out on the 15-minute time frame. This time frame is used because a trend was already identified in step one on the 4 hours and 1 hour time frames. Trendline price action forex system is time to learn theset ups You will learn 5 price action set ups combiningat times, “Support & Resistance”, “Trendlines”, “MajorPsychological Numbers”, and also “Fibonacci Numbers”.

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What is a Trendline - YouTube

On why you should never enter the market when the price breaks trendline in Forex. For more info check https://www.youtube.com/ukspreadbetting Mastering trend lines doesn't have to be complicated. I want to teach you how to use trend lines in forex trading so that you can use it to capture forex tre... Trading requires risk management ratios. Your capital is at risk. You can lose what what cant afford. A trendline is a line drawn from pivot to pivot and extends to the right, typically drawn under swing pivot lows or over swing pivot highs or to show the pre...

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