Forex Godfather Elite.pdf - Forex Godfather Elite www ...

I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting the stock market", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.

ok, so firstly,
all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict stock market" or "predict forex" or "predict bitcoin" and terms related to those.

Next,
I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether.

Then,
Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think!

THEN,
Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of.

Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at.

Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total.

Right, let's jump in.

So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things.
Here are the categories:
Results:
Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears.
Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :)

Now, results from the two most popular categories were:

The most frustrating paper:
I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think).

The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
  1. Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
  2. When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.
Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort.
So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies. Simple is good :)

Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.
submitted by chiefkul to StockMarket [link] [comments]

I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting bitcoin", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.

ok, so firstly,
all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict bitcoin" or "predict stock market" or "predict forex" and terms related to those.

Next,
I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether.

Then,
Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think!

THEN,
Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of.

Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at.

Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total.

Right, let's jump in.

So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things.

Here are the categories:

Results:
Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears.

Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :)

Now, results from the two most popular categories were:

The most frustrating paper:
I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think).

The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
  1. Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
  2. When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.

Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort.

So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies, simple is good :)

Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.


EDIT: in case anyone wants to read more from me I occasionally write on medium (even though I'm not a good writer)
submitted by chiefkul to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Binary Godfather Review 2015 - Is Binary Godfather SCAM? So How Does Binary Godfather Software By Anthony Carluccio And Tony Carluccio Work???

Binary Godfather Review 2015 - Learn the Facts about Binary Godfather in this Binary Godfather review! So Exactly what is Binary Godfather Software all about? So Does Binary Godfather By Anthony Carluccio And Tony Carluccio Really Work? Is Binary Godfather Software application scam or does it really work?
To discover answers to these questions continue reading my in depth and truthful Binary Godfather Review below.
Binary Godfather Description:
Name: Binary Godfather
Niche: Binary Options.
Official Website: Activate The NEW Binary Godfather!! CLICK HERE NOW!!!
What is Binary Godfather?
Binary Godfather is basically a binary options trading software that is designed to assistance traders win and predict the market trends with binary options. The software application also offers evaluations of the market conditions so that traders can understand what should be your next step. It gives different secret strategies that eventually helps. traders without utilizing any complicated trading indicators or follow charts.
Binary Godfather Binary Options Trading Technique
Base the Binary Godfather trading strategy. After you see it working, you can start to implement your method with regular sized lots. This technique will certainly pay off gradually. Every Forex binary options trader should choose an account type that is in accordance with their requirements and expectations. A bigger account does not indicate a bigger earnings potential so it is an excellent concept to start little and gradually add to your account as your returns increase based upon the trading choices you make.
Binary Options Trading
To assist you trade binary options properly, it is important to have an understanding behind the basics of Binary Options Trading. Currency Trading, or foreign exchange, is based upon the perceived value of. 2 currencies relative to one another, and is impacted by the political stability of the country, inflation and interest rates to name a few things. Keep this in mind as you trade and find out more about binary options to optimize your learning experience.
Binary Godfather Summary
In summary, there are some evident ideas that have actually been tested with time, in addition to some more recent methods. that you may not have considered. Hopefully, as long as you follow what we recommend in this short article you can either get started with trading with Binary Godfather or improve on exactly what you have already done.
Click Here To Claim Your Binary Godfather LIFETIME User License!!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Are You Looking For A Binary Godfather Alternative?? CLICK HERE NOW!
Tags: Binary Godfather app, Binary Godfather information, Binary Godfather url, Binary Godfather website, Binary Godfather trading software, get Binary Godfather, article about Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather computer program Binary Godfather support, Binary Godfather support email address, Binary Godfather help desk, similar than Binary Godfather, better than Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather contact, Binary Godfather demo, Binary Godfather video tutorial, how does Binary Godfather work, is Binary Godfather the best online is Binary Godfather a scam, does Binary Godfather really work, does Binary Godfather actually work, Binary Godfather members area, Binary Godfather login page, Binary Godfather verification, Binary Godfather software reviews, Binary Godfather no fake review, is Binary Godfather real, Binary Godfather forex trading, Binary Godfather binary options trading, Binary Godfather automated app, the Binary Godfather review, Binary Godfather signals, Binary Godfather mac os x, Binary Godfather broker sign up, Binary Godfather free download, reviews of Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather bonus, Binary Godfather honest review, Binary Godfather 2015, is Binary Godfather worth the risk, Binary Godfather pc desktop, Binary Godfather by Anthony Marco Carluccio Binary Godfather testimonial, Binary Godfather warrior forum, Binary Godfather web version, Binary Godfather open a account, Binary Godfather laptop Binary Godfather discount, Binary Godfather youtube, seriously will Binary Godfather work, Binary Godfather facebook, Binary Godfather activation code, Binary Godfather twitter, Binary Godfather currency trading, Binary Godfather example trade, will Binary Godfather work on mobile phone, new Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather webinar, will Binary Godfather help me, real truth about Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather System, Binary Godfather inside members page, how to download Binary Godfather, how to access Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather Robot, how to use Binary Godfather, how to trade with Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather free trial, Binary Godfather today, Binary Godfather feedback, Binary Godfather real user review, Binary Godfather customer reviews, Binary Godfather consumer review, Binary Godfather Review 2015 Binary Godfather doesn't work, is Binary Godfather another scam or legit, Binary Godfather refund, Activate Binary Godfather, review of Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather test, Binary Godfather explanation, what is Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather news, new version of Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather fan Page, should i use Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather yes or no, do i need trading experience, Binary Godfather create account, Binary Godfather instructions, Godfather By Anthony Carluccio, Godfather By Tony Carluccio Binary Godfather Secret method, Join Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather ea trading app, Binary Godfather limited time, Binary Godfather pros and cons, Binary Godfather bad reviews, Binary Godfather negative and positive review, Binary Godfather Author, Binary Godfather creator, who made Binary Godfather, what is the Binary Godfather, binarygodfather.com review, binarygodfather.com reviews, Binary Godfather strategy, Binary Godfather password reset, Binary Godfather beta tester, Binary Godfather comparison, Binary Godfather questions and answers, Binary Godfather results, Binary Godfather winning and losing trades, Binary Godfather overview, Binary Godfather training, how to setup Binary Godfather, start trading with Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather proof, Binary Godfather the truth, Get Binary Godfather, Binary Godfather Review
Click Here To Download Binary Godfather Right NOW!
submitted by PuyearMinning49 to BinaryGodfather [link] [comments]

Forex Godfather Robot Video by Driven2Success About ForexWorldGodfather - YouTube Forex Godfather Review - Automated forex trading system expert advisor Forex Godfather Review Profile of Forex World Godfather - YouTube Forex Godfather Review

Forex Godfather. Price: $67 Currency pair: GBPUSD Timeframe: H1 DEMO ACCOUNT TEST RESULTS: TESTING STOPPED! Start date: November 11, 2009 Demo broker: Alpari UK. Visit the Official Forex Godfather site. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in ... You can test drive Forex Godfather™ ™ before you risk a dollar, by setting up a demo account and seeing the true power unveil before your own eyes in 'safe mode' Works In All Market Conditions, 24 Hours A Day So That You Never Miss A Winning Trade Again. Forex Godfather Elite.pdf - Forex Godfather Elite www.forexgodfather.com \u00a9 September 2009 DISCLAIMER U.S Government Required Disclaimer Commodity Forex Peace Army also set up the test of the Forex GodFather V2 This robot does not belong to the family of expensive trading advisors. Of course this doesn't imply that the product is bad, we've seen awesome results before brought by inexpensive products. The catch is that your must subscribe for the mailing list plus read through up sale offers. User manual shows standard instructions ... Since the test was running for 20 weeks and performance is not impressive, we are stopping the test and not planning to restart it. This advanced version2 of Forex GodFather EA is provided FREE for Forex Peace Army test lab by NextGenerationTrading.com 12.15.09 Forex GodFather 2 installed on GBPUSD H1 chart with default parameters 1 Forex Godfather Elite September 2009. ... The demo account allows you to learn about the Forex markets and test your trading skills with ZERO risk. MESSAGE FROM THE GODFATHER: YOU SHOULD DEMO TRADE FOR AT LEAST 3 MONTHS BEFORE YOU EVEN THINK ABOUT PUTTING REAL MONEY ON THE LINE. I REPEAT YOU SHOULD DEMO TRADE FOR AT LEAST 3 MONTHS BEFORE YOU EVEN THINK ABOUT PUTTING REAL MONEY ON THE LINE ... watch comments for full strategy reports of every test i made with this ea.this ea is backtested 17 years ,14 years and 10 years with 99.90 test quality. the godfather passed al test + passed al the monte carlo test. in 17 years test 5000 balance lotsize 1.0 61295 net profit 1048 total of winning trades short positions won 830 (79%)

[index] [307] [9394] [17774] [12498] [12148] [12544] [6648] [8936] [13878] [17777]

Forex Godfather Robot Video by Driven2Success

Video of actual trade using Forex Godfather EA/Robot. Multi-Billionaire Cuts the B.S. and Explains How To Succeed Tilman Fertitta on Impact Theory - Duration: 35:27. Tom Bilyeu Recommended for you Please visit our website: http://tinyurl.com/forex-godfather-review For more robots review: http://top-forex-systemsreview.com The Expert Advisor opens trade... LIVE Forex Trading - LONDON, Fri, May, 1st Trade With Monty 674 watching Live now Simple Forex Trading Strategy: How to Catch 100 Pips a Day - Duration: 17:33. reacting to forex traders who used maximum risk!!! 😱 edz, cue banks, forex broker killer - duration: 43:55. ty 58,303 views This is Free Channels For Forex Education who want to start from forex market. Disclaimer: Any Advice or information on this website is General Advice Only - It does not take into account your personal circumstances, please do not trade... Disclaimer: Any Advice or information on this website is General Advice Only - It does not take into account your personal circumstances, please do not trade...

http://arab-binary-option.panbihusvahua.tk